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Monday, April 9, 2007

Stock Trading Newsletter 09 April

The Week Ahead: The stock market will have a delayed reaction to the stronger than expected employment report which was released on Friday when the markets were closed. With unemployment now at 4.4%, indications are now that the fed will hold interest rates at least steady if not one more increase going forward. Therefore, future economic reports will bear increasing sensitivity to stock prices. Watch for wholesale trade numbers and the trade deficit for February later this week as well as retail sales and business inventories.

Stocks to Watch: Shares of Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) are rebounding from oversold levels as a court ruling said that their drug coated stent did not infringe on Boston Scientific's (BSX) patent. The Tracinda Group is bidding $4.5 billion for the Chrysler division of Daimler (DCX) but is considered a low offer to buy. Cutera (CUTR) collapsed on a lower than expected earnings outlook for this quarter. Speculators can look for an oversold bounce possibly in the low 20's. Finally, Jarden Corp. (JAH) received an upgrade and price target of 45 by Goldman Sachs.

Special Note: From at technical standpoint, the major indexes are at least near term overbought as most stochastic indicators are stretched. What's interesting is the lower highs versus February when similar overbought levels occurred. Another indicator coming off a record extreme is the 15 day average of the OEX put/call ratio which hit 1.91. This is the highest ratio in the 24 year history of the OEX options market. The 3 previous highs all preceded significant market tops. Use protective measures to avoid a possible shakeout such as selling recent gainers, hedging, buying defensive or special situation stocks, and put insurance.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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