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Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Stock Market Trader Newsletter

The Week Ahead: In contrast to the nations chain store sales report, the government reported June retail sales had the biggest drop in 2 years with higher gas prices getting the blame. Despite this, the DOW pushed toward the psychologically important 14,000 level. Watch the June PPI and industrial production numbers on Tuesday, the June CPI and housing starts on Wednesday, Fed chairman Bernanke's semi-annual congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, and June's leading economic indicators on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Baker Hughes (BHI), an oil service company, traded sharply lower as it sees 2nd quarter earnings below estimates do to poor results from its Canadian operations. Shaw Group (SGR), a maker of pipes etc., received an upgrade from Citigroup with a price target of $70 because of a huge 3rd quarter backlog. Radio Shack (RSH) broke below its 50 day moving average after being downgraded to a sell rating. Smithfield Foods (SFD) is in talks to sell pork to China as its stock moves up from an area of consolidation.

Special Note: As the DOW completes its parabolic rise from the 2002 lows, investor sentiment is reaching levels that correspond to market highs. For instance, the Investors Intelligence percentage of bullish advisors recently hit multi-month highs near 60% while the American Association of Individual Investors has bullishness nearing 50%. Combine these figures with high complacency levels as measured by the VIX Index and an environment of high risk emerges for equities. Diversify holdings across many sectors.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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