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Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Weekly Stock Market Letter July 2

The Week Ahead: The holiday week opens with increased volatility after news of a tame inflation report for core prices, but rising food and energy prices as oil pushed above the $70 a barrel level. Reports to watch will be the Institute for Supply Management's June numbers release on Monday and the June auto sales and factory orders on Tuesday. After the Independence Day market break on Wednesday, the weekly jobless claims along with crude oil and gasoline inventories arrives on Thursday. An important June employment report is due by Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Education provider, Apollo Group (APOL), earnings came in flat year over year but were better than expected, and the company will buy back up to $500 million of its stock. Baidu.com (BIDU) continues to dominate the Chinese internet market as its stock recently soared to new all time highs and price targets were raised to $195 by Citigroup. Office Depot (ODP) shares continue to weaken after announcing that a softening economy will hurt sales by 4 to 5%. American Home Mortgage (AHM) warned of coming losses for credit related write-downs and was downgraded.

Special Note: The Commerce Department just reported the official savings rate fell to -1.4%, the lowest since August 2006. Considering how the calculation of this rate changed years ago to reflect the best possible savings picture, the still negative savings speaks volumes of the debt driven economy. Also, the Investment Company Institute showed that mutual fund cash levels as a percent of assets dropped to a record low of 3.6%. Past levels near this have accompanied major tops in the market such as the one in 2000.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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