Weekly Market Letter, February 4, 2009

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Weekly Market Letter, February 4, 2008

The Week Ahead: Employment growth has turned negative for the first time in 4 years led by housing, manufacturing, and construction jobs. This prompted many to believe more interest rate cuts are coming as stocks posted there best week in nearly 5 years. Look for confirming evidence in the factory orders report on Monday and the ISM non-manufacturing index on Tuesday. Same store sales data, pending home sales, and the jobless claims numbers are due out on Thursday. Friday brings the wholesale trade figures.

Stocks to Watch: Arch coal (ACI) in the energy sector beat earnings estimates handily and was rewarded by making a new 52 week high. Altera Corp. (ALTR) in the semiconductor sector came in with lower earnings but beat estimates as its stock rebounded sharply off of recent lows. Oshkosh Truck Corp. (OSK) fell short on their earnings report and the stock may have reversed a near term uptrend. Millipore Corp. (MIL) stock reversed sharply lower on higher earnings but was downgraded after its bio-process business was reported slowing down.

Special Note: The recent spike in the Volatility Index (VIX) to 37.57 fell short of what constitutes an important low in the market. Typically readings north of 40 or 50 are good indicators of a more lasting low. Despite a sizeable rally off the January low so far in the DOW and S&P 500, volume is lagging and the VIX Index is already approaching a low point where another large bout of downside volatility in stocks is probable. Look for a turning point in the major indexes as the week unfolds.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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