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Monday, October 20, 2008

NobleTrading Weekly Newsletter, 20 October 2008

The Week Ahead: Markets will try to build on last weeks rebound which was the best in 5 years. The credit freeze thawed somewhat as bank to bank lending rates eased but are still well above normal. With consumer sentiment having its steepest one month drop ever, barrowing demand by consumers may be experiencing a freeze of it own. Ben Bernanke will give his annual testimony to Congress on Monday, and the leading economic indicators are released. Realty Trac's Foreclosure Report is due Thursday and existing home sales on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: ING Group (ING) forecasts its first quarterly loss ever in Q3 as the stock hit a multi-year low. Also concerns that a cash infusion from a Dutch company will dilute earnings, but a bounce in the stock price seems due. Buying has pushed shares of Comstock Resources (CRK) up ahead of its addition to the Mid Cap 400 Index on Tuesday. Same goes for Nasdaq Omx Group (NDAQ) which will be added to the S&P 500 replacing Dillards (DDS). Leggett & Platt (LEG) sees sales falling in 08' for its residential furnishings as Q3 came in weak.

Special Note: The Dow Jones Industrial's 1900 point move off of last week's low or 24.2% was its biggest bounce of the bear market to date and fell right into the resistance pocket of 9600-10,000. For it to move through this range would likely take real fundamental improvement in the economy and renewed buying interest by investors. Problem is analysts have consistently been behind the curve in S&P 500 earnings expectations as the past 5 quarters declined 38% while expectations were seen flat or rising most of the time.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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