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Monday, December 1, 2008

Weekly Stock Market Letter, 1 December 2008

The Week Ahead: The volatility pendulum has swung to the positive side as a five day winning streak left equities with the best week in 34 years and an 18.5% gain since November 21. Reports to watch include: construction spending and ISM Manufacturing on Monday, auto sales on Tuesday, Q3 productivity along with the Fed's Beige Book of economic activity on Wednesday, factory orders, chain store sales, and jobless claims on Thursday, and finally the all important November Employment Report on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Retail stocks are showing mixed results heading into the Christmas season with Family Dollar Stores (FDO) outperforming most on a relative basis. Panasonic Corp. (PC) cut its fiscal year 09' earnings and sales forecast as the stock sunk to levels not seen since 03'. Frontline Limited (FRO), the Norwegian shipping company, cut its quarterly dividend to .50 from 1.50 but the stock recovered from its low despite this news. Dun & Bradstreet (DNB) will be added to the S&P 500 and Thoratec Corp. (THOR) to the Mid-Cap 400 on Monday.

Special Note: Despite the markets recent sprint, November ended its worst month in 8 years led by financials and information technology. The last time the market closed higher 5 straight days with white candlesticks was July 2007 which incidentally marked a top and a month long swoon in stocks. The way the 4th quarter has gone so far a continuation of the worst quarter in recent memory should not surprise investors. Near term resistance remains near 9000 on the Dow Industrials with strong resistance at 9600.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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