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Monday, January 26, 2009

Stock Market Letter, 26 January 2009

The Week Ahead: General Electric with its multi-faceted business confirms the broad nature of the current economic decline with a 44% drop in Q4 earnings. The markets will digest a busy week of reports starting with existing home sales and leading economic indicators on Monday. The FOMC kicks off a two day meeting starting Tuesday leading to a decision on interest rate policy on Wednesday. The new home sales and durable goods data is released Thursday while Friday produces what could be an interesting final Q4 GDP report for the economy.

Stocks to Watch: Despite the recent collapse in the stock of Aflac inc.(AFL), company executives say the financial position is strong and backs a Q4 EPS growth target of 15%. Southwest Airlines (LUV) received a downgrade because the company has little protection against a renewed surge in oil prices. Tempur-Pedic (TPX) showed a penny per share versus .52, but anticipates '09 EPS .70-.90. Geron Corp. (GERN) shares soared after an FDA okay to begin stem cell studies on patients with spinal injuries.

Special Note: Investors will be watching for signs of a reversal of the recent 3 week slide in stocks which seems to be relentless. Announcements from the new administration regarding stimulus plans for the economy may provide enough impetus for a relief rally despite further disappointing economic numbers. Otherwise, a swoon to new lows below November could be here rather quickly if confidence fades in the new President or his plans.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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