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Monday, January 12, 2009

Weekly Stock Market Review Letter

The Week Ahead: The continued severe drop in unemployment now at 7.2% likely means its momentum will continue well into 2009 with both manufacturing and service jobs being shed. Reports to watch will be the trade balance numbers on Tuesday, business inventories on Wednesday along with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, the Producer Price Index on Thursday, and December's Consumer Price Index and industrial production releases on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Electrical parts maker AZZ Inc. (AZZ) boosted 09' earnings guidance after beating estimates for Q3. Vail Resorts (MTN) reported that skier visits are down in the 08'/09' winter season so far. This stock has doubled since November. Palm's (PALM) new touch screen phone was a big hit at the Consumer Electronics Show and could give Apple Computer significant competition. Rambus Inc. (RMBS) reversed a strong advance from its November low after a judge ruled its patent claim against Micron Technologies was unenforceable.

Special Note: Consumer confidence continues to fall with the latest dismal economic numbers. Despite this, the S&P 500 has advanced 27% from the November low with similar advances in the other major indexes. A key indicator for a reversal of this trend is the CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio and its 10-day moving average which has now reached a level signaling a trend reversal as it is now turning up from a level last reached at the all time high in October 2007.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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