Weekly Stock Market Review Letter, July 6, 2009

The Week Ahead: The unemployment rate at 9.5% is now near a 26 year low with over 6 million jobs lost since the beginning of 2008. A relatively quiet week for the markets has June's ISM Non-Manufacturing Index to start things off on Monday to gauge the service side of the economy. Alcoa will officially kick off the second quarter earnings season with its Q2 report on Tuesday afternoon. The weekly jobless claims numbers along with the June chain store sales report on Thursday are the only other noteworthy reports.

Stocks to Watch: Acuity Brands (AYI)) stock fell over 7% after comparisons to last years' numbers failed to live up to expectations. Sovran Self Storage (SSS) halted a six day run after announcing a quarterly dividend cut from .64 to .45 a share. Illumina Inc. (ILMN) shares dropped 14% after warning that its Q2 revenues will be lower than previous estimates due to customer delays in its lighting array business. Sepracor (SEPR) dropped 18% after its depression treatment scored poorly in early phase II trials.

Special Note: One point on the current unemployment rate also known as U-3 is that it underscores the true rate of unemployment or U-6. Although U-3 is at 9.5%, U-6 which includes all of U-3 plus the underemployed and those that have stopped looking for work is estimated to be around 16.5%. This number could easily exceed 20% by next year. When all numbers are factored in then 1 out of 6 workers are out of work and/or not fully employed.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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