The Week Ahead: The unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% lifting the spirits of some nervous bulls as the markets recovered from a late February collapse, but the 97,000 jobs created are not enough to offset the 150,000 jobs needed for new workers each month. Economic reports to watch this week are the retail sales figures and business inventories release on Tuesday, and crude oil and gasoline inventories on Wednesday. Later this week, Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI numbers will provide a measure of inflation in the economy.

Stocks to Watch: CVS Pharmacy (CVS) sweetened its competing bid with Express Scripts (ESRX) to buy Caremark Rx (CMX) as shareholders contemplate an upcoming vote on March 16. Jones Soda (JSDA) announced a pact to sell products at Wal-Mart, Safeway, and Kroger stores. Shares broke out to the upside on the news. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) sunk on a worse than expected earnings report and a dim outlook for the 2007 housing market. Shares of Vonage Holdings (VG), despite having just gone public last May, have collapsed as the company lost a patent infringement case brought by Verizon (VZ).

Special Note: The markets rise last week was largely a response to the extreme short term oversold condition that developed in just one week in late February and early March. Going forward, look for a re-test of those lows possibly later this month or next. If the 12,039 level on the DOW is broken, then the old high area between 11,750 and 11,500 would be the next area of possible support. Bullish investors and traders could raise cash during this market rebound and wait for future opportunities to develop. The bears on the other hand will likely be shorting stocks as the rallies mature or creating net short positions in a hedged portfolio.


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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