The Week Ahead: Consumer sentiment surged in September on the
heels of the Dow Industrials move to new highs and the sharp
drop in gasoline prices from the summer highs. This is good
news for the economy ahead of the holiday season. This week
the market will focus on Tuesday's PPI and industrial production
numbers as well as Wednesday's CPI and capacity utilization
reports. Later in the week the housing starts data and leading
economic indicators will provide further direction.
Stocks to Watch: Market euphoria has heated up the IPO market
as three new issues to note include: SAIC Capital Restructuring
(SAI), Acme Packet Inc. (APKT), and Ehealth Inc. (EHTH) all
opened strongly. GE earnings were in line with expectations
but this was considered disappointing as the stock dropped.
Centex Corp. (CTX) second quarter orders fell 28% as its stock
weakened along with other housing stocks like BZH, KBH, PHM,
TOL. Finally shares of Unumprovident Corp. (UNM) surged on takeover
speculation.
Special Note: The markets infatuation with the Dow's new highs
has created a void between growth stocks and higher quality
issues as big caps have outperformed. Caution is still the word
for strategies in the equity markets as key technical indicators
are still pinned in overbought territory. Also of note the Mutual
Fund cash to Asset Ratio has been below 5% cash for 3 1/2 years
reaching a record low of 3.8% in September 2005. Therefore,
the market will require new money to propel stocks even higher
in a risky environment do to the low cash levels at mutual funds.
Commentary provided by Barry ward, Registered Principal at NobleTrading.com,
Inc.
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