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- NobleTrading Weekly Market Letter
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   October 17, 2006    
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The Week Ahead: Consumer sentiment surged in September on the heels of the Dow Industrials move to new highs and the sharp drop in gasoline prices from the summer highs. This is good news for the economy ahead of the holiday season. This week the market will focus on Tuesday's PPI and industrial production numbers as well as Wednesday's CPI and capacity utilization reports. Later in the week the housing starts data and leading economic indicators will provide further direction.

Stocks to Watch: Market euphoria has heated up the IPO market as three new issues to note include: SAIC Capital Restructuring (SAI), Acme Packet Inc. (APKT), and Ehealth Inc. (EHTH) all opened strongly. GE earnings were in line with expectations but this was considered disappointing as the stock dropped. Centex Corp. (CTX) second quarter orders fell 28% as its stock weakened along with other housing stocks like BZH, KBH, PHM, TOL. Finally shares of Unumprovident Corp. (UNM) surged on takeover speculation.

Special Note: The markets infatuation with the Dow's new highs has created a void between growth stocks and higher quality issues as big caps have outperformed. Caution is still the word for strategies in the equity markets as key technical indicators are still pinned in overbought territory. Also of note the Mutual Fund cash to Asset Ratio has been below 5% cash for 3 1/2 years reaching a record low of 3.8% in September 2005. Therefore, the market will require new money to propel stocks even higher in a risky environment do to the low cash levels at mutual funds.


Commentary provided by Barry ward, Registered Principal at NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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