The Week Ahead: The fed funds rate at 4.5% is now above the treasury note rate of 4.2% which often signals a recession coming. While many Fed officials see no need to cut rates soon, the bond market is forecasting a cut in December. The market will be watching economically sensitive reports like the leading economic indicators on Monday, housing starts and the FOMC minutes on Tuesday, and weekly jobless claims, mortgage applications, and oil inventories on Wednesday. Markets will be closed for the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Stocks to Watch: Fedex Corp. (FDX) cut its 2nd quarter earnings per share target because their bottom line is suffering from higher fuel costs.

The stock moved down as it continues to move lower off of a rounding top formed since May of 06'. Agilent Technologies (A ) had good 4th quarter earnings and sees 1st quarter revenue 5.9% higher than 1 year ago. Also, its board approved a $2 billion stock buyback plan. Virgin Mobile (VM) which went public in October collapsed after a wider than expected loss due to higher than expected operating costs. Special Note: The initial rally off the early November lows appears incomplete as the stochastic indicators are still oversold on most of the major indexes. Another leg up above last weeks highs seems probable since seasonal factors such as the pre-holiday bullish bias ahead of Thanksgiving appears to be coinciding with this scenario. Still the month itself is down substantially from the highs and one month doesn't make a trend. Investors may want to lighten positions into this strength.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.
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