The Week Ahead: An extended holiday shopping season this year combined with a multi-month winning streak in the market sets the stage for above average spending by consumers into year end. A busy week of reports starts with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaking on Tuesday while the durable goods and existing homes sales are released. Wednesday, 3rd quarter GDP and new home sales come out. Thursday brings the personal income and spending numbers for October and the weekly jobless claims. Finally, Friday the construction spending numbers for October are due.

Stocks to Watch: Gold was up big in London on Friday impacting shares of Newmont Mining (NEM). Look for further strength potentially here as well as other gold stocks like AEM, AU, ABX, GG, and MDG. Cameco Corp. (CCJ) the world's largest uranium producer announced a tentative pact with Tenex, a Russian company to do joint ventures in uranium exploration. Advanced semiconductor (ASX) has been rising lately on takeover speculation organized by the Carlyle Group. Lastly, Apple Computer (AAPL) reached an all time high as strong Christmas sales of its iPod product are expected. Look for higher prices into December.

Special Note: Complacency as measured by the volatility indexes (VIX) and (VXO) for two years running have been oscillating at low levels not seen since the late eighties and early nineties. Combine this with a negative savings rate for the average American household as the holiday shopping season begins, makes for an interesting mix as 2006 comes to an end. The major indexes have built in a best case scenario going forward and are subject to wild swings at any given time. Hedging positions now looks especially good possibly by purchasing calls on the VIX against a basket of stocks.


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal at NobleTrading. com, Inc.

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