The Week Ahead: More Fed officials seem to be indicating another interest rate cut is needed. The stream of economic data between now and December 11 will determine whether a 1/4 point or 1/2 point cut is needed. Two of the most important reports will be Monday's Purchasing Manager's Manufacturing Survey and Friday's employment report. Other reports of significance include Wednesday's ISM non-Manufacturing Survey, factory orders, and 3rd quarter productivity/costs. Thursday chain store and same store retail sales numbers are due.

Stocks to Watch: Big Lots (BIG) beat 3rd quarter earnings estimates but the stock dropped because slowing holiday sales is slowing managements turnaround plans. AbitibiBowater (ABH) had its board sign off on cost cutting initiatives aimed at saving $375 million as its stock continued a big reversal off the low. Sea Change Int'l (SEAC) which makes hardware and software for video on-demand TV showed a profit versus a loss in their 3rd quarter with revenues jumping 16% and expects continued strength into next quarter. Force Protection (FRPT) was down on fears the US Marines may cut back on orders of bomb and mine resistant vehicles.

Special Note: Consumer staple stocks were market leaders in November indicating a more defensive posture by investors primarily because consumer confidence continues to drop. This could also be a leading indicator for the markets and a confirmation of the Dow Theory sell signal given last month when the Dow Industrials joined the Dow Transports in closing below the August 16 low. Watch for signs that the current rally is weakening via low volume or poor blue chip leadership ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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