The Week Ahead: The month of June saw sluggish job growth but higher hourly wages created fear of an earnings slow down directly ahead. The fed could pause rate hikes here but that will depend on more economic data. Monday has wholesale trade numbers while Wednesday brings crude oil and gasoline invetories. Friday, June import prices and retail sales figures are due out along with July's consumer sentiment index.

Stocks to Watch: 3M (MMM) gapped beneath its 200 day moving average ushering in a wave of record selling volume. Traders should look for lower levels of support between 72-73 before a bounce. Lowes (LOW) was down based on slower housing activity and appears locked in an intermediate down channel from its peak in December toward a target of 26. Finally, GM is pursuing an alliance with Renault and Nissan but could be completing an uptrend from the 18 level last year.

Special Note: The May high in both the DJIA and S&P 500 went unconfirmed by the NDX and the first leg down completed on June 13. As the market continues its seasonally weak period into the 4th quarter, along with persistently high oil prices and rising interest rates, a 4 year cycle low is due in late 06' or early 07'. Investors are advised to hedge long positions with puts or perhaps a leveraged short fund like the Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC Fund (RYVNX).


Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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