The Week Ahead: Expectations for double digit growth in S&P
500 companies for the 3rd and 4th quarter helped propel a winning
week in the three major indexes. With consumer sentiment dropping
sharply in August, Bush's approval ratings sagging, and the
economy's growth rate slowing further upside progress could
slow. Look for housing stocks reaction to Tuesday's existing
home sales report and Thursday's new home sales report. Also,
Thursday brings the jobless claims report and durable goods
orders.
Stocks to Watch: Ford Motor (F) appears to have completed its
recent uptrend after announcing the biggest production cut in
2 decades of 20% in the 4th quarter and having its debt further
downgraded. Look for related weakness in the auto supply company's
like Borg Warner (BWA), Lear (LEA), and Visteon (VC). Momentum
in MSFT shares since June was bolstered by the company announcing
a $16.2 billion buyback of its shares on the open market. An
open chart gap near 26.94 could be filled.
Special Note: Signs of intermarket bearish divergences are going
on not only in European and Pacific Rim indexes but here in
the U.S. as well. For instance, the Dow and S&P 500 are
at there highest levels since early May yet the Nasdaq is still
below its June and July highs. This combined with declining
volume since the mid June lows indicates an increased likelihood
of a top forming here. Therefore market strength can be used
to lock in profits and look for new opportunities.