The Week Ahead: As the stock market enters the historically weak month of September, can an expected fed funds rate cut and a pledge by the President to help delinquent sub-prime borrowers forestall a down month for the major averages? Look for clues in the ISM Manufacturing Survey, auto sales, and construction spending numbers on Tuesday. The Fed Beige Book and pending home sales numbers are due Wednesday. Same store sales figures are out on Thursday and the wholesale trade numbers and August employment report on Friday.

Stocks to Watch: Rail stocks received a boost as Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Burlington Northern (BNI) to 15% setting up a near term trading opportunity. Shares of (ITT) Corp. gapped higher on news that it won the first contract to upgrade the nations air traffic control system. Esterline Technologies (ESL) looks poised for new highs as it showed solid 3rd quarter earnings and upped their 2007 year end target. Optimism for a rebound in cobalt prices has shares of OM Group (OMG) moving towards its 200 day moving average.

Special Note: The "September Effect" as many call it is the result of a period of historical weakness in the market averaging about -1% lasting through September. Contributing to this softness in prices are the many vacationers returning and often times selling into pummeled portfolio values and seasonally low cash levels for investors this time of year. Greater forces could be at work this year to drive prices lower both fundamentally via the huge debt overhang in the economy and technically with no significant correction in 4 1/2 years.

Commentary provided by Barry Ward, Registered Principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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